It may be hard to believe, but NFPA's latest report on Home Structure Fires shows that during the years 2014-2018, five general fire causes accounted for 86% of reported home fires, 95% of home fire ...
SNOW: I expect snow to be falling in the morning across most of Western NC; there's a pretty good chance from mainly north and west of Raleigh and Charlotte. I do think it is possible that the Triangle will see some snow in the morning as well, but that's as far as east the snow should go in the morning. Raleigh and points east will likely switch to rain by mid-morning Friday, and all areas west of Raleigh and Charlotte should see mostly snow with some rain mixing in. I would definitely plan for some impacts on the roads, especially west of Greensboro. I expect parts of Central NC to end as snow Friday evening; right now, the post from yesterday evening of my first snowfall map appears to be on track. I plan to update it this afternoon, but you can see it at the top of our page for now. ... See MoreSee Less
Keep an eye on the weather for the next couple days. If roads are slick stay home if possible. If power lines are down avoid them and remember never run a generator or grill inside your house, Carbon monoxide is a silent killer!Snow Day for the NC Mountains and parts of the Foothills Friday, the rest of the state a big mess and a huge let down for parts of Central and Eastern NC snow lovers. Accumulating Snow likely for the NC mountains and parts of the Foothills, the rest of the areas that have a chance from east of Greensboro to Raleigh just a big mess with cold rain and some transitions to snow. I've been pouring through data this morning, and have made a Forecast type map so you can see where you have the best chance to see accumulating snowfall. I'll explain what everything means on the map below. Unfortunately, for snow lovers, I don't see big accumulations outside of the mountains. Before you ask, yes, this could change many times between now and Friday. Forecasting weather is a science; it will change, I can tell you that. Nothing, I mean nothing is a guarantee with winter weather until it happens. This system has high bust potential. As of 10:30 AM, Wednesday, here's how everything stands.
If you're looking for a snow map, I hope to have one out this evening, at least a first call map.
*Please read everything, if possible*
Cliff Note Version -This does not look like a Major Winter Storm for NC; sorry, snow lovers. -I do think multiple inches of snow will fall across the mountains, so if you really want snow-head west -The best chance for any accumulation will be along, and north/west of Greensboro to the mountains, but chances are still rather low outside of the mountains due to a potential warm nose. -A mix of rain and some snow looks possible across part of Central NC accumulations not really expected east of Greenboro, but there could be some bursts.
-The best chance of some accumulating snow appears to be from west of Greensboro along and north of I-40 to the mountains. -Accumulating Snow is likely for the Mountains and parts of the western Foothills. -This does not look like a big snowstorm, and you will likely not need to raid the stores, at least as of now. -Forecasting Winter Weather is hard and notoriously hard in NC, so be patient. -No, I can't tell you right now how much you will see in your backyard. Many people will likely see nothing east of Greensboro at this point on the ground. -Timing will be during the late-night Thursday into Friday ending late Friday
Graphic 1: What could fall Friday:
Starting west (Dark Blue), Mostly wet snow across most of the mountains from Highlands/Cherokee north to Boone and the Yadkin Valley, a few inches of wet snow likely at this point.
Light Blue Area: Here's where I expect more mixing at points so snow amounts will be lighter, but I think up to an 1" or 2" are definitely possible.
Pink Area: This area, as usual, has a high potential for busting. The current forecast models show some snow starting early Friday morning, then switching to a rain/sleet/snow event with more rain than snow. Little to no accumulation expected. Just a big mess huge letdown for snow lovers. I think by Friday evening, the rain could end as wet snow and sleet for some, especially Raleigh west, but ground temps are the warm and limited time I think accumulation is limited to none.
Green Area: A cold on and off rain likely not expected huge amounts of rain, but definitely more rain many areas don't need. I can't rule out a few snowflakes mixing in.
Warm Nose near the surface will drive the mixing rain and snow across the Pink area and light blue this usually busts forecast so I'm factoring it in; this is when the temperatures above the surface raise above freezing and cause snow to become rain and go back and forth, and that's forecasted to happen.
Any switch in the forecast track of the low could impact totals; thus, I don't have an accumulation forecast yet.
What's driving the forecast: We don't have that perfect supply of cold air that we ideally need for snow in NC; temperatures should be above freezing most of the event outside of the mountains, so that's the hard part. We will have two main players in our weather across the state on Friday; we will have the main low-pressure system riding along the coast and the upper level low more to the west. This is key to how our weather will turn out and who sees snow or who just sees a cold rain. Upper-Level lows are extremely hard to model and forecast and are notoriously unpredictable.